John Smoltz sounds alarm on potential MLB lockout

Hall of Famer John Smoltz is sounding the alarm on a potential MLB lockout, and anyone who cares about baseball should be paying attention. The current collective bargaining agreement between the league and the MLB Players Association expires after the 2026 season, setting up what could be the most consequential labor confrontation in baseball history.

"We know that if they don't get this worked out, baseball will suffer. They cannot afford to have a stoppage with all the good that has been done and all the great games that have been played lately with the World Series," Smoltz told Fox News Digital.

The concern is warranted. Baseball is riding a wave of positive momentum — record attendance, compelling playoff races, and a new generation of stars like Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Elly De La Cruz capturing national attention. A work stoppage would not just pause the games; it would derail that momentum at a time when the sport has finally started to recover from the pandemic-era decline.

What's At Stake

The core conflict is about money — specifically, how revenue gets distributed between owners and players. The league's latest proposal includes a salary floor for each club and what it calls a "more divisive" salary cap. The players have long opposed any form of cap, arguing that it artificially suppresses earnings and shifts risk from owners to players.

MLB countered by pointing out that the MLBPA's proposal would reduce revenue transfers to lower-revenue clubs, weaken the Competitive Balance Tax, and lead to even more payroll disparity than exists today. "Under the Union's proposal, the Dodgers would pay less in luxury tax payments, giving them an additional $70 million to spend on payroll," MLB said in a statement.

The Competitive Balance Problem

Smoltz spoke to what he sees as a competitive balance issue across the league, and the data backs him up. The gap between the highest and lowest payrolls has widened dramatically in recent years, with teams like the Dodgers operating on a completely different financial plane than small-market clubs.

The salary floor that MLB has proposed would require every team to spend a minimum amount on player salaries — addressing "tanking" teams that pocket revenue sharing money while fielding sub-replacement-level rosters. But the salary cap that accompanies it would limit what the biggest spenders can invest, creating an artificial ceiling on player earnings.

Players see the cap as a ceiling on their value. Owners see it as necessary for competitive balance. The truth is that both concerns are legitimate, and neither side has proposed a framework that adequately addresses both.

The Clock Is Ticking

The 1994-95 strike canceled the World Series. The sport spent years recovering from the damage to fan trust and engagement. A 2027 lockout would happen in a fundamentally different media landscape — one where baseball is already competing for attention against an exploding array of entertainment options.

The CBA doesn't expire until after the 2026 season, but negotiations should be well underway by now. The fact that both sides are publicly positioning through competing proposals rather than engaging in substantive negotiations is a bad sign. Each day without meaningful dialogue increases the probability that talks break down and a work stoppage follows.

The economic calculus has also changed since the last negotiation. Broadcast revenues are shifting from regional sports networks to streaming deals, creating uncertainty about future revenue projections. Both owners and players are trying to lock in their share of a pie whose size they can't precisely predict.

What This Means For You

If you're buying season tickets or planning trips to see your team in 2027, keep an eye on these negotiations. A lockout would mean cancelled games, disrupted seasons, and potentially lost jobs for stadium workers and local businesses that depend on game-day revenue. The best thing fans can do right now is make their voices heard — both sides need to know that the public won't tolerate a repeat of 1994. Baseball is too good right now to let labor disputes kill the momentum