What to Watch at the Federal Reserve’s April Meeting

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at its April meeting this week — likely the last presided over by Chair Jerome Powell, as Kevin Warsh's confirmation to replace him moves forward.

Three key things to watch in the meeting's statement and Powell's press conference:

First, inflation language. Since the March meeting, energy prices have surged on Iran war concerns, pushing headline inflation higher. The Fed will need to acknowledge this pressure while distinguishing between temporary supply shocks and persistent inflation. Any shift in language suggesting the committee is more worried about inflation than growth could push rate cut expectations further out.

Second, the economic outlook. The labor market remains relatively strong, but cracks are emerging — hiring has slowed, and several major companies have announced layoffs. The Fed's assessment of how the Iran conflict is filtering through the real economy will set the tone for markets.

Third, the Powell farewell. This is likely Powell's last meeting as chair, and his press conference will be scrutinized for any hints about the transition to Warsh. Will Powell signal continuity, or will his comments suggest a more dovish path that Warsh might follow?

Markets are currently pricing in roughly a 70 percent chance of a single rate cut by year-end, but that calculus could shift quickly based on the meeting's tone.

**What This Means For You:** The Fed meeting won't change your rates tomorrow, but the forward guidance will. If Powell signals patience on inflation, expect mortgage rates and borrowing costs to stay high. If he acknowledges growth risks more forcefully, markets could rally on cut expectations. Either way, the era of easy money isn't coming back soon — adjust your financial plans accordingly.