Fed Confirms What Tech Developers Have Feared for Two Years

A new Federal Reserve study has confirmed what many tech workers have suspected since ChatGPT's launch: the growth rate for U.S. programmer jobs has been cut roughly in half since generative AI tools became widely available.

The study, published by the Fed's research division, analyzed employment data across the technology sector from 2020 through early 2026. It found that job postings for software development roles grew at approximately half the rate in the post-ChatGPT era compared to the pre-AI period, even as overall tech employment continued to expand.

The decline is most pronounced in entry-level coding positions — roles that involve routine implementation tasks that AI tools can now handle. Mid-level and senior positions have been less affected, and in some subfields like AI engineering and machine learning operations, demand has actually increased.

The findings complicate the narrative that AI will simply create as many jobs as it destroys. While new roles are emerging, they require different skill sets than the positions being displaced. A developer who spent years writing boilerplate code may not have the mathematical background or systems design experience needed for the AI-adjacent roles that are growing.

The Fed researchers were careful to note that correlation does not equal causation — other factors, including post-pandemic hiring corrections and the broader economic slowdown, have also contributed to the employment shift. But the timing and magnitude of the change strongly suggest that AI adoption is a significant factor.

What This Means For You: If you are a software developer, the study reinforces what the job market has already been telling you: routine coding skills are depreciating assets. The premium is shifting toward architects who can design systems, engineers who can integrate AI tools effectively, and professionals who understand the business problems technology is supposed to solve. The jobs are not gone — but the bar for getting them has risen, and the skills that got you hired three years ago may not be enough today.